Single-payer fallout: How far will it spread?

MONTPELIER – With Gov. Peter Shumlin's signature single-payer health insurance plan sidelined indefinitely, the political fallout will continue when the Legislature convenes next month — first to elect a governor and then throughout the session — and likely into the 2016 campaign.

Rep. Don Turner Jr., R-Milton, the House minority leader, said he hopes Shumlin, a Democrat, will listen to people outside his party and inner circle now that the governor decided cost estimates were too high to justify proceeding with the single-payer plan. Shumlin has championed the proposal for years.

"We have had very little voice up to now," Turner said. He said Shumlin is beginning to feel the fallout from legislators and others who supported single-payer insurance.

"He may have lost a lot of support, especially among the liberal wing of the Democratic Party. He may need our votes to get things done," Turner said.

The breakdown for the House when it convenes in January is 85 Democrats, 52 Republicans, 6 Progressives and 6 independents.

"I am looking at it as an opportunity," Turner said.

During the November election, Republicans picked up eight seats in the Democratically controlled House.

And first up: Lawmakers must decide who Vermont's next governor will be, because Shumlin failed to win a majority of votes in the general election.

Calling his health care decision the "biggest disappointment of my political life," Shumlin announced Wednesday the financial models show Vermont is unable to afford the type of government-financed health insurance known as single-payer.

He said the plan would require an 11.5 percent payroll tax on businesses, while adding up to another 9.5 percent to the state income tax.

Shumlin received those numbers about five days earlier and asked his staff to look at them for a few days to see if they could bring the proposal back to life. But in the end, the patient had flat-lined, and there was no way Shumlin could see to resuscitate the single-payer.

The Vermont tax base just was not there to make Green Mountain Care happen.

Still, the governor says he is not giving up on a lifetime goal.

"We will get there," Shumlin said told the Burlington Free Press last week. Single-payer remains his biggest political hope.

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The votes

Turner, the Republican leader, was unsure whether Shumlin's decision to end single-payer for now will have any effect on how Republicans vote in the legislative secret-ballot election between the incumbent and GOP challenger Scott Milne.

In November's general election, Shumlin won a plurality but failed to obtain the required majority when he nipped Milne during a seven-way race. Shumlin tallied 89,508 votes, or 46.4 percent, while Milne collected 87,075, or 45.1 percent. Libertarian Dan Feliciano led the also-rans with 8,428, or 4.4 percent.

The 150 House members and 30 state senators are scheduled to vote by secret ballot Jan. 8 on the next governor. That's the second day of the 2015 session.

Turner and other Republican leaders have urged legislators to vote for the candidate who carried their respective legislative districts. In that case, Milne would win.

Milne took few stands during the campaign, but he did say single-payer was dead and challenged Shumlin to admit it before the Nov. 4 general election. One other stand he took — and there were doubters — was that he would win governorship. That remains to be seen.

Milne, who trailed Shumlin by 2,434 votes, has declined to concede, which is unusual in cases where no candidate receives 50 percent. The challenger said he is hoping lawmakers vote for him, but he's not actively campaigning.

'A betrayal'

Meanwhile, the Vermont Progressive Party said it feels Shumlin's action on single-payer insurance is "a betrayal of Vermont's working families."

Rep. Chris Pearson, P-Burlington, the caucus leader, said his colleagues are upset.

"A number of Progressives feel burned by this," Pearson told the Burlington Free Press on Friday.

However, Pearson,a three-term representative, said he does not expect a revolt when the Legislature votes on the next governor.

"I don't think it has any impact," Pearson said. He said he had received emails since Wednesday urging him to vote for Milne — but none came from his legislative district.

Pearson said although he found Shumlin's change in posture "very disappointing," he is unsure the governor's action should translate into "playing games with the General Assembly."

But there could be ramifications in 2016.

Morgan Daybell, the party's vice chairman, said members have backed away from offering their own candidate in the past three gubernatorial races, because single-payer insurance was a main plank in Shumlin's platform.

Daybell and Pearson said Progressives are considering fielding a candidate for governor in two years. They said candidates will be more thoroughly screened.

The party said in a statement Friday from Daybell that it will seek candidates "who are unwavering in their commitment to comprehensive, universal health care. We increased the number of Progressives in the Statehouse in 2014, and we look forward to building off that momentum."

Shumlin at work

Shumlin, who is finishing up his second two-year term as chief executive, said he has given no thought to the impact of his single-payer decision on whether legislators will vote for him.

Shumlin continues to say single-payer is not dead, just sidelined.

Although some politicians might have been trying privately to come up with a new health insurance model on the back of an envelope, Shumlin said, he was out in front as best he could be with his plan.

"When we said we didn't have the number, we didn't have the numbers," Shumlin said.

He said he saw the first solid financial numbers provided by consultants in Massachusetts during a health care meeting Dec. 12, a Friday.

"The numbers, they were eye-popping high to me," he said.

Shumlin said he asked his staff to take that weekend, "drill down on the numbers" and confirm there were no double charges or other possible mistakes in the computations.

"I had hoped they had botched it," Shumlin said of the consultants.

But by the following Monday, the news remained unchanged.

"I asked 'What are we waiting for?' I said as soon as I knew, I would let Vermonters know," he said. "I was just absolutely devastated, to be candid. I have always believed we would get it done."

Sharing the secret

The next issue was to decide exactly how Vermonters would be told. A large muzzle closed the normal release of information from the Governor's Office. For more than 24 hours, media calls and emails were ignored.

A news conference had been planned for 11 a.m. Wednesday, but the location remained undisclosed. Later, a note stated the event would take place at Shumlin's conference room. But at about 7:30 a.m. Wednesday, spokesman Scott Coriell sent an email changing the location to the governor's ceremonial Statehouse office and delaying the news conference to 2:15 p.m.

By 2:15 p.m. the news conference was moved into a hearing room to handle the large crowd, including a large number of single-payer supporters, some opponents and also people who were Shumlin backers.

Immediately after saying he was killing any effort to move forward now with single-payer, Shumlin took to the media circuit. He called the Burlington Free Press editorial board after the news conference ended.

He appeared on the Thursday evening newscasts for the four commercial television stations: WCAX, WFFF, WPTZ and WVNY. Shumlin also appeared on Vermont Public Radio and the Mark Johnson Show on WDEV-AM/FM in Waterbury.

The governor also talked with editors at newspapers in Middlebury, Rutland and St. Albans, Coriell said, and other newspapers were seeking interviews.

Shumlin said it is important for Vermonters to understand the great lengths his team went to try to deliver on a campaign promise for insurance for all people.

Unhappy and happy troops

While many Vermonters were pushing for single-payer health insurance — and some still have that wish — the decision to pull drew a wide range of reactions

The Vermont Workers' Center, which has focused on trying to ensure health insurance for everybody, was dismayed by Shumlin's announcement. The group sponsored a protest rally for about 80 demonstrators the following day in Montpelier.

The demonstrators provided a platter of burned toast and a note that read "Dear Shumlin, Your career is toast! Sincerely, The People." They also burned some medical bills.

James Haslam, the center's director, said the center is among those that felt a slap in the face. The center is a longtime supporter of the Healthcare is a Human Right Campaign.

He said the center and the campaign will continue to try to move forward.

The Vermonters for Health Care Freedom said it was relieved Shumlin had finally killed the plan for now. The group said it has been starting for more than two years that single-payer "would be devastating to Vermonters, employers and the overall state economy."

The group noted that the $2.2 billion earlier cost prediction has increased to $2.6 billion.

The increased costs, along with the unrelated disaster created by Vermont Health Connect shows the state needs to be out of the health care business. The VHCF said it will work with the legislature to move Vermont to the Federal Exchange.

Turner, the house Republic leader, said he plans to join with Sen. Joe Benning, R-Caledonia, the Senate minority leader, to send a letter to the inspector general and the appropriate Congressional Healthcare Oversight Committee requesting a review and audit for the federal money spent by Shumlin on his failed plan and for Vermont Health Connect.

Turner said Shumlin needs to be held accountable for the "egregious mismanagement and waste of well over $100 million.

The Vermont Public Interest Research Group said the need for reform "does not go away with this announcement, neither does our commitment to ensure all Vermonters have high quality affordable health care. VPIRG will continue to look for solutions, spokesman Falko Schilling said.

Shumlin said he favors the Green Mountain Care Board continuing to study health care and its chairman, Al Gobeille, supports the idea.

"I agree that we can not abandon our efforts to control health care cost growth, reduce complexity, increase transparency and improve Vermonter's experience in our health care system," Gobeille said in a statement after the announcement.

'These efforts are not easy and are not a full solution of what ails our health care system, but they are necessary and the Green Mountain Care Board stands ready to continue this important work."

Contact Mike Donoghue at 660-1845 or mdonoghue@freepressmedia.com. Follow Mike at Twitter at www.twitter.com/FreepsMikeD.